Join the forum discussion on this post - (2) PostsThis weekend will bring together Florida(1) and Alabama(2) in the SEC championship game. As much as I despise the SEC, I actually respect them as a conference and believe them to be the strongest in college football this season. Since they are arguably the two best teams in college football and I advocate a BCS playoff, I cannot complain that one of them will get knocked out without the opportunity to play for the national title. This actually ends up being somewhat of a playoff. My beef is who we will likely end up with as an opponent to one of these teams in the BCS National Championship Game. Barring an unlikely defeat by Nebraska, this will probably be Texas.
Unlike the SEC, I have little respect for the Big 12 as a conference. In my opinion, they get far too much recognition for being a conference of big names, big names that have done too little for too long. Last year, I thought that the Big 12 was the second strongest in college football until it dawned on me that it was all an illusion. An illusion caused by supposedly high powered offenses when in all actuality it was the effect of extremely low powered defenses. The Big 12 has NO defense!
When I started to write this article, it was going to be based only on opinion, and fed completely by my hatred for the Big12. But who the hell cares about MY opinion?  Therefore, I decided to do a little research to see if my reasoning was justified. Here is what I found.
1.) The crappy thing about the college football rankings system is that it is very mush subjective. It is mostly based on opinions and again, who the hell cares about opinions. Opinions cause lesser known programs like Boise State, TCU and Cincinnati to get overlooked and written off in favor of the bigger, sexier schools. Because of this, my first point looks at the computer rankings portion of the BCS rankings. The computers don’t have a bias and don’t care how sexy a school is. Here is how Texas stacks up in the computer rankings to the next closest teams in the BCS.
Texas: .890
TCU: .860
Cincinnati: .900
Point Cincinnati.
Source: ESPN.com
2.) Next, let’s look at the strength of schedule based on currently ranked opponents.
TX: Oklahoma State(20) and assuming Nebraska(22). Ranked opponent score = (20+22)/2 = 21
TCU: Utah(25) and BYU(14). Ranked opponent score (25+14)/2 = 19.5
Cincinnati: Oregon State(16), WVU(23), and assuming Pitt(15). Ranked opponent score = (16+23+15)/3 = 18
Point Cincinnati.
Source: ESPN.com
3.) Lastly, let’s explore my defense claim. My claim is that the Big 12 severely lacks on defense. If this is true, it should be reflected in the defensive quality of Texas’ opponents this year. My method for computing this was to take the sum of defensive rankings by points allowed/game of all opponents divided by the number of games played.
Texas
| Louisiana-Monroe | 75 | |
| @ Wyoming | 76 | |
| Texas Tech | 38 | |
| UTEP | 106 | |
| Colorado | 90 | |
| vs. No. 20 Oklahoma | 7 | |
| @ Missouri | 57 | |
| at No. 14 Oklahoma State | 37 | |
| UCF | 27 | |
| @ Baylor | 78 | |
| Kansas | 88 | |
| @ Texas A&M | 105 | |
| vs. No. 22 Nebraska | 3 | |
| 787 | AVG=60.54 | |
| Cincinnati | ||
| @ Rutgers | 13 | |
| Southeast Missouri State | 82* | |
| at Oregon State | 39 | |
| Fresno State | 62 | |
| @ Miami (OH) | 108 | |
| @ No. 21 South Florida | 25 | |
| Louisville | 68 | |
| @ Syracuse | 82 | |
| Connecticut | 59 | |
| No. 25 West Virginia | 26 | |
| Illinois | 84 | |
| @ No. 15 Pittsburgh | 15 | |
| 663 | AVG=55.25 | |
| @ Virginia | 67 | |
| Texas State | 95* | |
| @ Clemson | 21 | |
| Southern Methodist | 93 | |
| @ Air Force | 8 | |
| Colorado State | 95 | |
| @ No. 16 Brigham Young | 35 | |
| UNLV | 103 | |
| @ San Diego State | 97 | |
| No. 16 Utah | 22 | |
| @ Wyoming | 76 | |
| New Mexico | 113 | |
| 825 | AVG=68.75 |
Texas: 60.54
TCU: 68.75
Cincinnati: 55.25
Point Cincinnati.
Source:Â foxsports.com
* Schools were not listed so an estimated ranking was used based on points allowed/game compared to this list.
Read it and weep Texas fans! Even if you do win out and Cincinnati does the same, you do NOT deserve to play for the National Championship! Unfortunately, the BCS series much like global warming theory is not based on logic and empirical data so you will still get your chance. I have confidence though, that the football gods will win out and you will be exposed just as Ohio State and Oklahoma have been exposed by the SEC over the past three years. My prediction. Florida 45, Texas 10.
Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)
- Related posts on alabama crimson tide
- Who’ll win the SEC? Florida or Alabama? | Sports Betting Tips and …
Related posts:
- Who Gets the BCS At-Large Bids Now It’s crunch time folks! The conference championship games this weekend,...
- Why Oklahoma State Will Finally Beat Oklahoma in Norman Let’s admit it – even on an off year, Bob...
- College Football’s Winter Formal I like to call college football's bowl games the NCAA's...
Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.
Great Post Gringo
I like your argument this year because my Buckeyes are not sitting where they have in the last few years, in Texas’ spot.
It will be interested to see what happens to Cinci if they beat West Virginia this weekend. I think they will have a big time match up and a chance to defend their case or prove the bias against them correct.
This is a great technical post, and makes me feel bad about all the ragging I’ve done on Cinci on this site.
The Bearcats aren’t doing much to help my argument right now.
how did cinci…. help your arguement now?
What a game Bearcats! Go Huskers!
Hope that analysis plays out! I’d love to see the Bearcats in the NC game. Go Huskers!!!
Well, I think today proved your post even better, elgringo. Thanks for writing such a great piece.
If both of these teams I saw today (Texas and Bama) show up for the BCS National Championship, they’re going to make the OSU-Florida 41-14 beatdown look like a close game.
Hi, I am into this blog. Texas has not played well in the last two weeks, why have they not taken a hit in the number of voted received>? All that talk has died down. Alabama kept getting hit during the season. I guess my question is: Where is the chatter? The poor performance chatter?
Sorry Cinci fans…My Huskers tried their damndest to keep Texas out of the National Championship. Nebraska’s defense played an amazing game. Too bad, like the rest of our season, the offense forgot to show up. Alabama is going to ROLL Texas and McCoy should be out of the Heisman race now.
I agree, Texas doesn’t deserve to be in the national championship game but I don’t think Cincinnati is any more deserving. Big East is a weak conference in my opinion and both those teams barely won their games this weekend. TCU should be in the championship game against Alabama. As for the Mountain West not being a strong conference and Utah/BYU not deserving their ranks, remember that Utah blasted Bama in the Sugar Bowl last year showing that the Mountain West can play with the big boys. Give TCU their shot at the national title.
Also, a couple of errors in your analysis…
After this weekend, Pitt, Oregon St, OK St, and Nebraska rankings will drop…so your average rank will change. TCU will remain unchanged. Point: TCU
The change in ranks will effect the computer rankings, dropping Texas and Cinci while TCU will remain unchanged. Point: TCU
Also, the defense claim isn’t a fair analysis of the distribution. In this case, it is best to look at maybe the top 5 defenses they faced and the points scored on those teams. The difficulty of a schedule is based more on the 5 or so good teams faced oppose to all the crappy teams in between.
Divided the total defensive ratings for the five best defenses faced by the total points scored on those teams.
Texas:
Nebraska – 3 – 13 pts
Oklahoma – 7 – 16 pts
UCF – 27 – 35 pts
Oklahoma St. – 37 – 41 pts
Texas Tech – 38 – 34 pts
139 pts/112 = 1.24
Cincinnati:
Rutgers – 13 – 47 pts
Pitt – 15 – 45 pts
South Florida – 25 – 34 pts
West Virgina – 26 – 24 pts
Oregon St. – 39 – 28 pts
178 pts/118 = 1.51
TCU:
Air Force – 8 – 20 pts
Clemson – 21 – 14 pts
Utah – 22 – 55 pts
BYU – 35 – 38 pts
Virginia – 67 – 30 pts
157 pts/153 = 1.03
Point: Cincinnati
Texas: 0
TCU: 2
Cincinnati: 1
jinxgt, I plan to publish a revised version of this when the rankings come out. I am not a UC fan so if TCU comes out on top, then so be it. However, one thing will remain, TX will likely still be undeserving. I think we can agree on that. Thanks for your comments!
If you think the SEC is the strongest conference then why does the PAC 10 have 5, count ‘em, FIVE teams in the top 25?? I think this clearly demonstrates the PAC 10 is always underrated and it’s players not as likely to get the Heisman as other conferences that can’t match this record.
Boise State one of the premier programs? Take a look at their schedule and see who they play! If they had anywhere near the competition as the teams in the SEC or the PAC 10, they would not be undefeated. A good team, yes, but they are right where they belong in the Bowl series.
Now, back to the question. Texas was given that game by the referees with that one second extension of the game. Colt McCoy looked awful and what, completed three passes of consequence in the entire game? No, Texas should not be playing for number 1, it should be Cincinnati and Alabama. If Texas loses and it will, then down to about 4 is where they belong. Somehow they managed to win, but not because they were the best team.
As far as Ohio State and Oregon, watch the game films and check the speed of the Oregon players. Speed will determine who wins this game, not the size of the line. Oregon 34 – Ohio State 20.
Go Ducks!
A couple of things, as far as your analysis goes
1. Using the computers is the most objective figure and Cinncy just edges out Texas by a hundreth of a point. Fair enough Cinncy wins this hundreth of a point.
2. You use the strength of schedule argument using numbers that you criticized in your first point, either use the subjective poll data in both arguments or in none. Don’t pick and choose to use the subjective polls only when it is convenient to your argument.
3. What does this number actually prove?? Just the average rank of the defenses that each team played? What does that prove about the quality of Defenses found in the big 12 or for that matter how good the Texas defense is in general. How does this number reflect how good TCU’s D is versus Cinncy’s or Texas’s?
You arguments are a little flawed my friend and don’t worry the BCS is not perfect either, but I think it is a lot more logical than your little statistics and what the BCS says is that Texas is number 2 and is playing number 1 Alabama. Get over it, move on.
Even Nick Saban knows that Texas is a team that needs to be respected otherwise it will turn out to be Rose bowl 2006 all over again (another game where people glossed Texas over)
For the Oregon fan knocking Boise State really??? Boise beat you already… shouldnt that be enough to shut you up at least in so much as knocking that program or its conference?
I used strength of schedule to prove that if the coaches and AP were truly objective, they would have seen this. Instead, they stick with what is safe and vote for the bigger, sexier schools.
The average defensive strength of TX opponents represents the Big 12 because most of their games were against the Big 12.
I hope this is a good game and I am proven wrong. Good football always outweighs my biases and opinions. The TX 2005 championship is one of my favorite sports games of all time, but I don’t think this team is near as good. Thanks for your comments.
Another point I will add, how can you even qualify your statement that the refs gave Texas the win with the 1 second review. Every play is reviewed in college football,the plays are even reviewed so that game clocks are properly set, it doesn’t somehow change because it is the last second of the game . . . was it bad management by Colt, uh yeah. . .did that second deserve to be on the clock, uh yeah . . . not only that but Hunter still had to make the field goal to win the game, so the refs didnt magically give Texas the game.
Fact is that as of right now, on paper, this could possibly be the worst batch of bowl games we’ve seen in a while.j
TCU vs. Boise State: Snore
Bama vs. Texas: Blowout unless Texas learns some real D ASAP
Ohio State vs. Oregon: Tressel will find a way to snooze and lose in the 4th quarter
Florida vs. Cinci: This one I’m interested in and heavily cheering on Cinci.
We clearly need an 8 team playoff. Someday, I don’t know when, but someday.. we will look back at ourselves right now and just laugh at this ridiculous mess. I’ll write a new entry soon, unless someone feels like beating me to it.
Texas definitely has this game as a win. Texas is being underrated and I shall rub it in everyone’s faces once they win. Carry on with your fail life haters.
ok im tired of everyone saying texas doesnt deserve to go to the rose bowl…..
we won all of our games fair and square and yes even the nebraska game even tho that was a really bad day for us but whatever we deserve to go! in tired of texas always being underrated! were undefeated and even tho yall say we play teams who are easy because they aren’t in the top 25 doesn’t mean anything…it isn’t our faults that they aren’t good enough to be ranked and that we have to play them! so leave texas alone and stop crying about them getting this chance they deserve at another national championship!
Test forum reply – will this also show up in the blog comments? (answer is yes but the cache isn’t always up to speed – sorry for the noise)